The Kibo Lottery has opened its gates! Is this the next big thing or just another pyramid scheme? Read my TL;DR at the bottom of the post if you are here only for the verdict! Else continue reading some highlighted facts and my biased opinion on this subject.
Kibo Lottery White Paper
After reading their white paper here are the most important things that stood out to me:
Kibo Lottery Fund Distribution
When tickets for the kibo lottary are purchased, funds are distributed as follows:
- Lottery prize fund: 68%
- Branch bonus: 17% (Referral)
- Payout on KIBITS: 14% (all of us who buy in, will have KIBITS. This can be seen as dividends to a stock.)
- Payout on control tokens: 1% (KIBO Owners)
-> 10%: Payout for the KIBO PLATFORM franchise branch network
-> For payout of bonuses for the line-by-line branch network. 7 % distributed upwards, 1 % per level.
The distribution looks okayish but not great. It is awesome, that you can earn good referral earnings and at the same time good branch payouts. Yet the lottery prize fund distribution percentage is only 68%.
This is below average! I just checked the distribution in the Austrian Lotto: From the ticket price of 1.2€, 0,79 go to the price pool! This results into a 79% for pool funding! I did not research other lotteries!
Kibo Lottery Payouts
Here is the Payout Scheme for the normal lottery stated on their white paper:
Variable Prize for 2 correct numbers: 0.0003 % of the Jackpot
For 3: 0.0006 % of the Jackpot
For 4: 0.005 % of the Jackpot
For 5: 0.05 % of the Jackpot
For 6: 2 % of the Jackpot
For 7: 100 % of the Jackpot
Most of the earnings are distributed into the Jackpot – which is standard to all the lotteries in the world. Though the Kibo Lottery has an even higher distribution weight on the Jackpot in comparison to normal ‘not decentralised’ lotteries.
Kibo Platform Coding and Engine
The user GramJamAndFish posted on reddit about the logarithm stated in the white paper. He proofed that the random number generator (RNG) is in fact not random. Which means, that it is more than exploitable and insecure.
“Your source of randomness is fundamentally insecure. Relying on blockhashes for randomness only works when there is no money at stake since a miner can choose to publish or not publish a block based off of whether or not they will win.”
“That snippet doesn’t even compile, because index 2 is invalid syntax. Also uint game is the declared parameter but they go onto reference it as _game which is an invalid reference. Obviously not tested.”
“So anybody that can mine two blocks in a row can change the outcome? Better still, mine two blocks, see if your outcome is positive, and if it is release the blocks, otherwise discard them. This is super stupid.”
Kibo Lottery ICO
Besides the fund distribution, what I found more than interesting is the fact that after the ICO, all of the non-distributed shares are going to the Kibo Lottery Founders. At the moment of writing this article (04.10.2016), there are currently 25.5 Million Tokens sold out of the 100M created ones. If we take the average price of 1 ETH for 36 Tokens, this means even if only 25% of the Tokens don’t get sold and the “Manager” get them, that they are getting 25M Tokens, each having a price of 1ETH/36 Tok = 0,36 USD. This means they are arbitrarily granting themselves about 9M USD. Obviously, this will deflate the price per token for a lot. In my books, this can be seen as a bad investment.
Pyramid Scheme – Kibo Platform
For one to be able to participate as an affiliate, you need to buy the “Kibo Platform”. The price of the Kibo Platform is 10ETH, which equals to more than 130 USD. For this, they promise you some kinds of dividends and 10 Levels of affiliates earnings under you. I think I don’t need to explain this further, it is just a typical pyramid scheme from the year 2000.
Is the Kibo Platform any good for Ethereum?
I think for the start (currently) it will make ethereum more desired. Though, as I am pretty sure that this will become a scam, the price will drop, since this will be seen as something negative because they build it on the ethereum block chain.
There is no official names. From Slack you can see that they mainly speak Russian and have an office in Singapore. Take this as you wish, normal “startups” praise their team members, since this is one of the most important things in each team/startups.
My Thoughts on the Kibbo Scam Platform
I think this might result in a scam. Be cautious! Better invest somewhere else – at least for now! Also, since there are not that many regulations and the possibilities are limitless, I think there is a huge market potential and if someone makes something realistic with low fees and good winning probability – let’s say 70% of ticket price is paid out – this could be the next big thing!
TL;DR: Take care about this Kibo-Pyramid-Scheme – DO NOT invest! This is at least my opinion based on the facts above.