Bitcoin Block Halving – July 2016 – What will happen?!
Opinion and Assumptions on the Bitcoin Block Halving
First of all, I want to say, that nobody can predict what will happen – and who ever say’s he can, is just bullshitting. This article covers my own opinion on Bitcoin halving happening July 2016. But first, let me just briefly explain what this halving means.
Explanation: Bitcoin Halving
The Bitcoin Halving is a coded event, which halves the numbers of Bitcoin per Block from 25 to 12.5. This event will happen on the 420.000 Bitcoin Block, which should be around the 10th of July 2016. This is the second time in Bitcoin history, where a halving will occur – first was on the 210.000 Bitcoin block – where no big price movements have been recorded.
The Meaning for the Bitcoin Market
What this means for the market is far from certain. Simple economics suggest that if the demand for BTC remains constant through the year while the supply is halved, then the price should rise until supply and demand is at a new equilibrium. Which is something nice for all of us who are already in the Bitcoin market.
Prediction after the BTC Halving
What I think will happen as soon as the halving hits:
- 50% decrease in mining profitability – for 2-4 weeks
- many smaller players wont be able to sustain and will quit mining bitcoin for that period of time
- Mining Difficulty will fall by ~50% at the next adjustment
- Until then we will have 50% less hash rate, this means that the transaction confirmation time will double to ~ 20 minutes.
- After the difficulty adjustment, earnings and hash rate will get in balance and only the small players will quit mining bitcoin.
How does Bitcoin Halving affect Mining?
At the moment of writing (30.05.2016), the Bitcoin price has reached 20-month-high (539$). Which is awesome for the bitcoin cloud miners! Of-course, only 12.5 BTC per Block translates to lower return rate. But hey, as stated above, this also translates to a reduction of mining difficulty. This and the higher price might be sufficient to make bitcoin mining still profitable.
Also, don’t neglect the chance of the cloud miners to change their mining currency. They can easily start mining any other profitable cryptocurrency at any given time! As long as you can easily mine it with ASIC hardware.
Fun fact, each time the block rewards gets cut in half, we get closer and closer to the end of Bitcoin production.
What do you think about the Bitcoin Halving in 2016?
Please let me know, i would like to discuss this further with you! Add your comment below.
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Categories:
Cryptocurrency Market
If the situation of bitcoin halving still remain…soon the bitcoin will dead.
12.5 Block size
6.3 blok size
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0 block size
This is one scenario. Also, it’s possible that the Bitcoin price goes, up and up …. and we are rich 🙂
When the Block size gets smaller, I expect that the need of Bitcoin will stay the same, meaning that the price needs to go up in order to be balance between request and demand.
How much the bitcoin price could up up and up? it will goes never above the face value…
How much it will go up, this i can’t tell you. Else, I would be laying on some beach and drinking a nice cocktail! 😉 But about this face value, let me give you a simple example: Lets say, the value of a banana is 1$ and daily 100 bananas are produced. On the very next day, 50% of the banana trees are cut. So from now on, only 50 bananas are produced daily. At the start, the banana price is still 1$. But as the merchants see, that the people who want a banana are still the same number,… Read more »
But you know there are other fruit also available in the market in cheap price.
Ethereum is spreading slowly and dominating bitcoin.
The bitcoin price could never above against the gold.
Hey Kashif! Of course there are many other fruits in the market, but most people at the moment have desire for Bitcoin. 🙂 There will be always a balance, but I don’t know what this balance will look like. I just hope that cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin will grow and grow. I think, that if Bitcoin fails, it won’t be easy for a second cryptocurrency to get this status of prestige and value.
Ps. I just want to tell you, that we also diversify our investments and we hold some other coins.
How much investment do u put to diversify?